Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Predictions 2

2012

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OK the scenario I think most likely. It’s easy to see if you take us out of the picture.
China – big depression – like ours, only with billions of people and no safety net.

China – authoritarian because they know the masses can’t be put back in the bottle after uncorking – funnel the unemployed into project – Military (discipline et al) – to take back Taiwan – mild rebuke from us, we step in, but don’t go crazy – big battle, China loses – but gains enough to be really pissed off. We are exhausted by the battle to assist.

(2017 ed. -- nope)

China steps back, acts nice – then North Korea falls apart and attacks the South.  China step in the North –‘to calm’ water, but tries to keep the south under its political control. We are again exhausted by our effort to assist – the South does win, but China has leverage and nominal control of the South and big time control of the North.Reunification looms large -- but in a 'let's all vote freely and get Hamas into power,'  kind of way.

(2017 ed. nope, but maybe soon)

It gets antsy on the border with RussiaVladivostok and the oil of Sakhalin Island – tension and strong words exchanged..Russia is in its own depression and not in a good mood.
Russia steps into North Korea after repeated provoking by China.

(2017 ed. nope, all talk)

Russia China war – India helps Russia, Pakistan China -- or maybe they fight just because.
What about us – we are worn from the Bush decade and the exhaustion of defending Taiwan and Korea. We, and Europe, sit this one out until drawn in – Europe to Russia, for the oil and because they are white brothers. We divide and isolate until…?

(nope)

It’s never really all about us. At least not anymore.

(2017 ed. Nope -- it is all about us)

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